As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to take on the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on Friday evening, all eyes are on a matchup that promises to deliver an intriguing contest. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:45 PM ET, and the Reds come into the game with a season record of 47-50, placing them 4th in the NL Central, eight games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. Meanwhile, the Nationals stand at 44-53, similarly positioned in 4th place in the NL East, trailing the Philadelphia Phillies by a significant 18.5 games.
The Reds, despite their record, are favored in this game. However, the Nationals, marked as underdogs at +105, have a projected 62% chance of victory. This underdog status might inject a sense of urgency and determination into the Nationals' roster.
Starting Pitchers
Frankie Montas, who will start for the Reds, has experienced a season filled with ups and downs. With a 4-7 record and a 4.38 ERA in 17 starts, Montas showed resilience in his last game against the Rockies, despite giving up five earned runs over seven innings. He’ll be looking to find more consistency and efficiency on the mound to secure a win for his team.
On the other side, Patrick Corbin will take the mound for the Nationals. Corbin's season has been rocky, evidenced by his 4-9 record and a 5.57 ERA across 19 starts. Although he managed to pitch seven scoreless innings back on June 24th, his subsequent outings have been marred by an unfortunate pattern: he has given up at least one home run in each of his last four starts. Nevertheless, Corbin is projected to finish with five strikeouts in this game, a hopeful sign for Nationals fans looking for a solid performance from their starter.
Team Dynamics and Recent Performances
The Reds have emerged victorious in four of their last five away games, a record they hope to build upon against the Nationals. Despite their position in the standings, the Reds have proven they can play well as favorites, with a 5-5 record in such games. Yet, their recent 3-2 loss to the Marlins might still linger in their minds. Nick Lodolo's effort in that game was commendable, giving up just two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings, and Elly De La Cruz provided a spark with a home run in the first inning.
In contrast, the Nationals have had a tougher time at home, with a 2-3 record over their last five games and a 3-7 record in their last 10 games. Their recent game against the Brewers ended in a 9-3 loss, with Jake Irvin surrendering six earned runs in just four innings. Despite these struggles, the Nationals have shown resilience, having won two out of three games in their most recent series against the Brewers.
Offensive and Defensive Metrics
Offensively, the Reds are averaging 4.5 runs per game, placing them 14th in the league. Their team batting average of .231 might not immediately impress, but it’s complemented by notable individual efforts. Spencer Steer stands out with 60 RBIs and 15 home runs, marking him as one of the MLB’s top 10 in RBIs. Defensively, the Reds have shown strength on the run line, with a 53-44 record overall and an impressive 30-14 performance on the road.
The Nationals, while averaging fewer runs at 4.1 per game (ranking 23rd in the league), have managed to slightly improve this at home, where they average 4.2 runs per game. Their batting average of .239 and their 13th rank in on-base percentage reflect a patient approach at the plate. CJ Abrams, despite his recent slump of going 3/21 in his last five games, leads the team with 15 home runs and 48 RBIs. The Nationals’ competitive nature is evident in their 6-4 straight-up record as underdogs and a 5-5 record against the runline.
Final Thoughts
Both teams face significant challenges, with notable absences affecting their lineups. The Reds are missing Joey Gallo, Luke Maile, and Matt McLain, while the Nationals have to cope without Trevor Williams, Josiah Gray, and CJ Abrams. Yet, each team possesses the potential to flip the script in crucial moments.
The over/under for the game is set at nine runs, adding another layer of strategy as both teams aim to either exceed or contain this total. The Reds have struggled with a 2-16-3 under similar conditions, whereas the Nationals hold a balanced 7-7-2 record under these circumstances.
As the Reds and Nationals face off, fans can expect a competitive and captivating clash. Whether it’s a test of the pitching depth of Montas and Corbin, or the ability of the teams’ batters to capitalize on scoring opportunities, this game is poised to deliver a spectacle at Nationals Park.