On a tough night at Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins once again found themselves on the wrong side of a close contest, losing 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians after blowing a three-run lead. Griffin Jax surrendered a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning, sealing the team's fate. This marked the Twins' 18th loss in their last 27 games, a troubling trend that has put their postseason hopes in jeopardy.
The Twins currently cling to the third AL wild-card spot, with their lead shrinking to just 1 1/2 games. This is a dramatic shift from earlier in September when FanGraphs had the team's postseason odds at a robust 95.4%. Those odds have now dwindled to 76.4%, reflecting their recent struggles. The Twins have found themselves in a precarious position, needing to maximize every opportunity if they hope to maintain their grip on a playoff berth.
Part of the Twins' woes can be attributed to their offensive inconsistencies. In 12 of their last 27 games, they failed to score more than three runs. During this stretch, they batted a lackluster .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. When the bases are empty, their performance dips even further, hitting .272, placing them among the league's worst in this scenario.
Challenges on the Mound
The pitching staff has faced its own set of problems. The bullpen, which was a strength for much of the season with a 3.84 ERA and a solid win probability added (plus-3.41) through the first 123 games, has faltered significantly in the last 27 games. Their ERA has ballooned to 5.47, with a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added.
"We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this," said Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. This sentiment was echoed by Griffin Jax, who acknowledged the team's depleted state: "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
Adding to their troubles, the Twins have played 17 games in the last 18 days. Fatigue has clearly set in, affecting both their rotation and bullpen. The rest of the rotation has posted a dismal 6.07 ERA during the last 27 games, averaging just 4.38 innings per start. It's a situation that has left the team vulnerable, often failing to hold onto leads late in games. In fact, the Twins had the lead in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and were tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions.
Looking for Reinforcements
The Twins recently made a move to bolster their pitching staff, claiming left-hander Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin had a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances this season. "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help," said Twins’ executive Derek Falvey.
While some reinforcements are coming, the Twins know their margin for error is shrinking rapidly. "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow," said pitcher Pablo López.
Return of Key Players
On a brighter note, the Twins expect Max Kepler to return soon, which could provide a much-needed boost to their lineup. Additionally, stars Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown signs of life, combining for a 5-for-15 performance with two doubles and a homer this month.
Despite their recent struggles, the Twins still hold crucial tiebreakers over two of their closest competitors, the Detroit Tigers and the Seattle Mariners. The Tigers, who are just two games behind the Twins, have been on a tear, winning 23 of their last 33 games. This makes every game for the Twins increasingly important as the season winds down.
As Rocco Baldelli aptly summarized, "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together." The Twins' path to the playoffs is far from smooth, and only a comprehensive team effort will ensure they secure their spot in the postseason.