MLB Game Preview: Diamondbacks vs. Cubs

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago Cubs prepare to square off this afternoon at Wrigley Field, fans are in for an exciting showdown. Scheduled for 2:20 PM ET, this matchup sees the Diamondbacks slightly favored with a money line of -106. Both teams bring contrasting forms and key players to the fore in what promises to be a riveting contest.

Pitching Duel: Steele vs. Nelson

On the mound for the Cubs will be Justin Steele, who has put together an impressive season. Steele, with 14 starts under his belt, holds a 2-3 record complemented by a solid 2.71 ERA. His consistency is further underscored by his eight quality starts, with the most recent being a seven-inning, scoreless outing. Steele’s performance at home, where he has an ERA of 3.16, and on the road (ERA 2.96), shows an ability to maintain his form across different settings. For today’s game, Steele is projected to have six strikeouts and is anticipated to concede fewer runs than his counterpart, Ryne Nelson.

Nelson, on the other hand, has had a mixed season for the Diamondbacks. With a 6-6 record and a 4.99 ERA, Nelson will aim to capitalize on his recent form, having made six consecutive starts without surrendering more than three earned runs. However, his WHIP stands at 1.42, and opponents have batted .296 against him. Nelson is expected to register four strikeouts in today’s game.

Team Dynamics: Diamondbacks on the Rise

The Diamondbacks come into this game with a 49-48 record, sitting second in the NL West, seven games behind the Dodgers. They have shown resilience on the road, winning four of their last five away games. This road form is crucial as they look to build on their average of five runs per game, the second-best in MLB. Key players like Christian Walker, with 22 home runs, and Ketel Marte, with 19, will be pivotal to the Diamondbacks' offensive push.

Despite a recent 8-7 loss to the Blue Jays where they squandered a seven-run lead, the Diamondbacks have won two straight road games. Their overall run line record mirrors their general performance at 49-48. The Diamondbacks' games have been high-scoring affairs, averaging 9.8 runs this season, leading to an over/under record of 52-42.

Cubs Seeking Stability

The Cubs, meanwhile, stand at 47-51 and are fifth in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by 8.5 games. Their recent form has seen a semblance of resurgence, going 7-3 in their last ten games and holding a 4-1 record in their last five home outings. As home underdogs, the Cubs have been relatively successful with a 9-5 record.

Offensively, the Cubs average 4.2 runs per game and have an overall batting average of .235. Nico Hoerner's .378 batting average over his last nine games and Christopher Morel's three home runs in his last eight contribute to a lineup looking to gain more consistency. In a recent 8-3 win over the Cardinals, Jameson Taillon pitched 5 2/3 innings, conceding three earned runs, showcasing the type of resilience needed in today’s game.

High Stakes and Projections

Today’s game has an over/under line set at 7.5 runs. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, with each riding three-game over streaks. An impressive 84.5% of Diamondbacks games this season have surpassed the 7.5 run line, while the Cubs have seen 67.3% of their games go over the same line. When the run line is set at 7.5, the Diamondbacks hold a 6-4 record and the Cubs a 12-10 record.

The prediction for today’s matchup stands at a narrow 5-4 victory for the Diamondbacks. With both teams aiming to build on their current form and continue their push in respective divisions, the contest at Wrigley Field promises to deliver plenty of excitement for the fans in attendance and those watching from afar.