The Philadelphia Phillies and the Pittsburgh Pirates are gearing up for an exciting Friday night showdown at PNC Park, with the first pitch set for 6:40 PM ET. This matchup sees the Phillies coming in as clear favorites, backed by a money line of -145.
Phillies: Dominance and Form
The Phillies have been a force to reckon with this season, holding an impressive 62-34 overall record. They sit comfortably at the top of the NL East, leading the Atlanta Braves by a healthy margin of 8.5 games. Their performance is particularly strong at Citizens Bank Park, boasting a 37-16 home record, while they manage a respectable 25-18 on the road.
However, recent road trips have not been entirely smooth for the Phillies. They are 2-3 in their last five away games, mirroring a runline record of 2-3 in the same span. A recent two-game series loss against the Athletics adds to their inconsistent road form.
Aaron Nola's Pitching Prowess
Taking the mound for the Phillies will be Aaron Nola, whose season record stands at an impressive 11-4 with a 3.38 ERA. Nola has been a cornerstone for Philadelphia's rotation this year, delivering 14 quality starts and striking out an average of 8.72 batters per nine innings. His last outing was commendable, pitching six innings, allowing one earned run, and striking out nine. Winning three of his last four starts, Nola looks poised to add another win to his tally.
Offensively, the Phillies have been solid, averaging five runs per game and batting a collective .259. Power-hitting has been a significant part of their success, with the team ranking sixth in home runs across MLB. Bryce Harper, a key contributor, has a .301 average, 21 home runs, and 61 RBIs. Complementing him is Alec Bohm, currently on a five-game hitting streak and maintaining a .295 average.
Pirates: Surging Underdogs
The Pittsburgh Pirates, holding a 48-48 record, have been on a roll, winning four consecutive games. They recently completed a strong series against the White Sox, clinching victory in three straight matches. Despite being third in the NL Central and trailing the Brewers by 6.5 games, the Pirates have shown resilience, especially at home, winning four of their last five games at PNC Park.
Historically as underdogs, the Pirates have performed admirably, holding an 8-2 record straight-up in their last ten such games. Their runline record as underdogs stands at an impressive 38-18, reinforcing their capability to challenge higher-ranked teams.
Martín Pérez on the Mound
The Pirates will rely on Martín Pérez, who has struggled this season with a 1-5 record and a 5.16 ERA. Pérez's latest start against the Brewers saw him give up five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings, a concerning statistic as he prepares to face the potent Phillies lineup.
Offensively, Pittsburgh averages 4.2 runs per game and has a collective batting average of .231. Bryan Reynolds has been a beacon of consistency, hitting .284 with 18 home runs. Over his last seven games, Reynolds has been exceptional, batting .321 and belting two home runs. Meanwhile, Ke’Bryan Hayes is riding a four-game hitting streak, contributing significantly to the Pirates' recent success.
Expectations and Predictions
The game's over/under line is set at eight runs. The Phillies have fared reasonably well when this mark is set, with a 14-11-1 record. Conversely, the Pirates hold a 10-12 record in games where the over/under line is set at eight. In terms of runline, the Phillies have a 23-20 record on the road, while the Pirates are evenly poised at 23-23 at home.
The expert prediction for this contest slightly favors the Pirates, with a 6-5 victory anticipated. Given their recent form and ability to pull off upsets, it wouldn't be surprising to see Pittsburgh continue their winning streak. Nevertheless, with Aaron Nola on the mound and the Phillies' offensive firepower, this matchup promises to be a captivating encounter under the Pittsburgh lights.