The Denver Nuggets, crowned as the 2022/23 NBA champions, are set to face off against the Indiana Pacers on a chilly Tuesday night at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The game is scheduled to tip-off at 7:00 p.m. ET, with Denver entering as the favorites, laying five points.
Nuggets' Dominance
With an impressive 30-14 record, the Nuggets find themselves sitting third in the Western Conference standings. Their recent form has been commendable, winning four out of their last five games and now seeking their third consecutive road victory. The team's success can be attributed to the stellar performances by Nikola Jokic, who put up a remarkable 42 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists in his latest outing against the Washington Wizards. With Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon listed as probable for the upcoming game, Denver's offense looks poised to continue its high-scoring trend.
Pacers' Struggle and Hope
Contrasting fortunes have seen the Pacers slip to seventh in the Eastern Conference with a 24-19 record. They have stumbled recently, losing four of their last five games, including a 117-110 defeat to the Phoenix Suns. However, they've shown resilience on their home court, winning five of their last six at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Tyrese Haliburton, leading the team in points per game and assists, is listed as questionable due to a hamstring issue, which could impact Indiana's performance. Additionally, Isaiah Jackson and Andrew Nembhard are doubtful, leaving the Pacers potentially short-handed.
Historical Edge
History favors the Nuggets, who have bested the Pacers in their last seven encounters, including a 117-109 victory earlier this month. In that game, Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Porter each tallied 25 points, while Aaron Gordon added 20. Haliburton did not play in that matchup, and his presence—or absence—could again be a critical factor. It's also worth noting that Indiana hasn't secured a win against Denver since 2020 and has lost their last four home games in this matchup.
Betting Odds and Trends
Bet Rivers has priced the Nuggets at -175 on the moneyline, reflecting confidence in the visiting team. Despite this, Denver's Against The Spread (ATS) record this season stands at 19-24-1, covering only 44.2% of their games. Their performance dips even further following a win, with the ATS percentage dropping to 35.7%. On the road, Denver's ATS record is a less than stellar 8-15-0. As away favorites, they've managed to cover just one-third of the time, despite their average margin of victory being five points.
In contrast, the Pacers boast a more favorable ATS record for the 2023/24 season at 24-18-2. They have covered 60% of their home games and hold a strong 5-2 record as home underdogs. These statistics suggest that Indiana may outperform betting expectations despite their underdog status.
Player Spotlights and Team Stats
Jokic continues to be a force in the league, ranking 13th in points per game with an average of 26.1 and standing fourth for both rebounds and assists. Murray contributes significantly, averaging 20.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.5 assists. For the Pacers, Haliburton leads in points and assists, with Pascal Siakam, a new addition from the Toronto Raptors, scoring 21 points in his debut against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Final Thoughts
While Denver's poor ATS performance this season might raise eyebrows, their consistent 5-point margin of victory indicates potential to cover the spread in the upcoming game. The Nuggets have showcased their ability to score from multiple areas, with players like Porter and Gordon making significant contributions in their previous clash with the Pacers. Meanwhile, the Pacers will need to leverage their home-court advantage and hope for Haliburton's swift recovery to improve their chances.
An intriguing battle awaits as the reigning champions look to solidify their position in the West, while the Pacers aim to climb up the Eastern Conference ranks. With Bet Rivers listing the Nuggets at -5 (-105), it's clear that Denver is expected to extend their dominance over Indiana. However, as any seasoned sports fan knows, anything can happen when the ball is tipped.